October 6, 2009 FINAL UPDATE

Congratulations to John Agnello, our 2009 MLB Pool Champion. His seven correct categories are the second highest total in the five-year history of the pool, quite the accomplishment considering the significant number of injuries to star players this year.

Thanks to everyone for participating. We hope you all return for next year.

October 4, 2009

October 3, 2009

John Agnello is holding steady to his lead as we head into the last day of the season. Since yesterday's standings (below), he and Jon Pauley have each added Dustin Pedroia (AL runs) to their tallies, so Agnello goes into today's action looking to tie the all-time pool record for most correct categories with eight (Sid Harris - 2005).

It looks like the most likely scenario that could bump Agnello from the top spot would be a big day from Prince Fielder, who trails Ryan Howard for the NL RBI lead by three. If Fielder completely overtakes Howard, Jon Pauley will be our first repeat champion. If Howard holds onto at least a tie for the lead, Agnello will shed the bridesmaid label we previously bestowed on him.

September 30, 2009

If this isn't the wildest final week in pool history, it sure seems like it. As of Sunday's update, defending champion Jon Pauley was our leader. Then, during that day's action, Ryan Howard tied Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead, moving Aaron Smith into first place. Two days later, John Agnello moves in front on the strength of Mark Teixeira's 39th home run, which ties him with Carlos Pena for the AL lead.

September 28, 2009

Aaron Smith captures the lead...

September 27, 2009

With just a little over a week to go in the season, today is a rare treat for pool participants. Both of your pool organizers are in the same place as we prepare the update, so you'll be the beneficiaries of some serious over-analysis.

We've determined that a total of nine people still have an outside chance to win this thing. That list consists of both of us, as well as Karen Jost, Rob LaColla, Tony Wight and Joe Williams. But, it also includes the three contenders with the most realistic chances of coming out on top: Jon Pauley, Aaron Smith and perennial bridesmaid John Agnello.

Obviously, as the current leader, Jon Pauley's chances are mostly dependent on things remaining as they are, but we thought we'd try to lay out what it will take for the other top two contenders to win.
With Ryan Howard's recent surge in NL RBI, all it will take for Smith to earn the top prize is for Howard to overtake Prince Fielder for the lead in that category...all else remaining equal, of course.

Agnello needs any two of the following four category changes: Mark Teixeira in AL HR, Howard in NL HR, Howard in NL RBI, and Tim Lincecum in NL ERA. Again, this would also depend on no other significant changes.

But, as you can imagine, there are way too many scenarios to outline them all at this point, because there is still a lot that could happen over the final eight days of the season.

September 26, 2009

September 20, 2009

What a difference a day makes. As of Sunday morning, when Jud posted the standings (below) prior to the day's action, Matt Lucas stood in third place in the pool's standings. However, by the end of this afternoon's games, Matt had dropped to 24th place, as Roy Halladay passed C.C. Sabathia for the AL IP lead, Prince Fielder took over the NL RBI lead, and Tim Lincecum gave up the NL ERA lead by allowing five earned runs in four innings. As I write this, though, Albert Pujols has driven in a run in the Sunday night game to tie Fielder for the NL lead. Still, Lucas stands in 14th place, with little chance to become the pool's first two-time champion (he won in 2006).

Defending champion Jon Pauley, on the other hand, remains strong in his quest to repeat, re-claiming the lead as a result of today's developments. Aaron Smith, Tony Wight, Joe Williams and John Agnello (in that order) round out the top five. Stay tuned...

September 19, 2009

September 12, 2009

For the last month-plus, the pool lead has been alternating between current leader Jon Pauley and Tony Wight, although Tony has recently dropped to 7th place. Since we all know that they are two of the top contenders to take the big prize as we approach the final three weeks of the season, we thought we'd take a look at the chances of a few others in the running.

John Agnello (4th place) has moved into the top five on the strength of Roy Halladay's tenuous AL IP lead. Of course, with C.C. Sabathia pitching today, he should re-claim that category, but it should continue to be a see-saw battle, with Zach Greinke and Justin Verlander also figuring into the mix. Agnello is pulling for Tim Lincecum in the NL ERA race, a change that would also benefit fellow contender Jud Ehrbar (5th place). But, the real opportuniy for John is the season-ending injury suffered by Carlos Pena. With Mark Teixeira poised to make a run at the AL home run title, Agnello and Jim Kushner (10th place) stand to gain the most from this development.

All other things remaining equal, Joe Williams (3rd place) is an Ichiro Suzuki AL batting title away from first place in the pool. Dan McCloskey (8th place) is also pulling for Suzuki. Despite the "season for the ages" that Joe Mauer is in the midst of, Ichiro trails him by only eight points in the AL batting race.

We've previously pointed out that the low HBP total of Aaron Smith (2nd place) means he needs to win outright, since there's little chance he could win a tiebreaker, but this is still a realistic possibility. He also shares five "in the money" categories with Pauley, though. So, he also is rooting for Ichiro to overtake Mauer for the batting title, but will need Williams to lose one of these two categories as well: CC Sabathia in AL wins or Brian Fuentes in AL saves.

We'll take a look at the chances of a few more contenders next week.

September 9, 2009

September 7, 2009

Over the last couple of weeks, the pool has hinged on a see-saw battle for the AL Saves lead between Mariano Rivera and Brian Fuentes. Actually, Rivera hasn't quite been able to take complete control of the lead, but each time he moves into a tie with Fuentes, Tony Wight jumps to the top spot of the pool standings. Despite missing out on his last two save opportunities due to a mild groin injury, his save in the first half of a day/night doubleheader with the Rays on Monday, moves him back into a tie for the AL lead.

Not knowing exactly where all the other categories stand due to the fact that there are games in progress as I write this, it may be a bit risky to assume that this puts Tony back on top of the pool. However, a healthy Rivera certainly bodes well for his chances.

September 6, 2009

September 5, 2009

September 3, 2009

I thought it would be interesting to point out that there are four women in the top ten. I'm not sure if this is a record, but considering there are only six women--out of 33 total entrants--in the entire pool, that's pretty impressive.

August 29, 2009

The Mets' loss of Johan Santana for the remainder of the season probably means much less to their dismal 2009 campaign as it does to the pool's standings. Despite the fact that most of our current contenders lost a point since the last full update due to Santana's falling out of the NL wins lead, 4 of the top 11--including 5th place Aaron Smith--benefited from this development.

Defending champion Jon Pauley is back on top, primarily on the strength of Joe Mauer's run at the AL batting title. Or, at least that's the reason he's moved from top 10 to #1. Aaron's ascension into the top five is aided by Mark Teixeira's move into the AL RBI lead. With a low HBP total, Aaron will have to win outright, though.

With just over a month to go in the season, it seems that more people have a chance to win this thing than has ever been the case this late. I could be wrong, but with 11 of 33 participants holding either four or five categories, and an additional 11 with three, the big prize is still up for grabs. We'll be providing a little more in-depth analysis during a final month that looks like it's going to be pretty interesting.

August 22, 2009

This Day in Pool History: August 17, 2007

August 16, 2009

August 12, 2009

August 9. 2009

August 5, 2009

August 2, 2009

Due to the ever-shifting nature, and all-or-nothing rewards system, of the pool, we've seen quite the turnaround in just a few days time. With Jacoby Ellsbury re-taking the AL stolen base lead, Johan Santana moving into a tie for the NL lead in wins, and Tim Lincecum temporarily--that is, until Adam Wainwright pitches today--claiming the NL innings pitched lead, our collective performance has been elevated from pitiful to respectable.

Despite losing any hope that Cliff Lee will take the AL innings pitched category, Ali Armstrong jumps three points in four days to claim the lead with six categories, while Rob LaColla, Tony Wight, Joe Williams and Frank Gatland all improve by two or three each to round out the top five.

With Roy Halladay staying put, Lee turns out to be the only significant league jumper at the July 31 trade deadline. Jake Peavy also makes our league jumpers list (see right-hand column), but his injury troubles this year had already wiped away any chance he had to lead the NL in any categories. Note that, since the pool is about who leads their respective leagues in individual categories, HBP totals are the only statistic that carries over. So, Ryan Garko's shift to the NL has no impact on the pool, but unless Lee gets traded back to the AL, his chances of winning any categories are dead.

July 29, 2009

July 26, 2009

July 23, 2009

July 20, 2009

All-Star Break 2009

Despite the fact that Joe Mauer started the season on the disabled list, Jon Pauley took a calculated gamble and chose him to lead the AL in batting average. That unique pick is one of the main reasons he's tied for the pool lead at the All-Star break. This, of course, is not meant to undervalue the fact that co-leader Tony Wight is the only one to select Albert Pujols for NL runs.



In a year in which we share so many picks in common, it would seem likely that unique picks are what's going to make the difference. So, I thought I would use this All-Star break update to take a look at the unique picks that have the best chances to pay dividends. First of all, in addition to Pauley's selection of Mauer for AL batting average and Wight's choice of Pujols for NL runs, the following unique picks are currently leading their respective categories:

Carlos Pena - AL HR (Gert Quigley)
Josh Beckett - AL Wins (Will Rice)

Not surprisingly, both Rice and Quigley are currently in the top ten of the pool's standings. Beyond these four, though, there are quite a few unique picks that still have pretty good potential to pay off. These are (in no particular order):

Justin Morneau - AL HR (Frank Gatland)
Evan Longoria - AL RBI (Tim Farrell)
Brian Roberts - AL Runs (Harvey Hawkins)
David Wright - NL BA (Amy Gill)
Roy Oswalt - NL IP (Frank Gatland)
Chad Billingsley - NL Wins (Amy Gill)
Dan Haren - NL Wins (Jim Kushner)
Chris Carpenter - NL ERA (Ali Armstrong)
Javier Vazquez - NL SO (Will Rice)
Francisco Cordero - NL Saves (Tony Williams)

Of course, it would be an oversimplification to assume that unique picks are the only way to win this thing, but hopefully this shows that it's still just about anybody's contest to win, and gives a few more people a little optimism that they otherwise might not have.

July 12, 2009

July 1, 2009

June 20, 2009

Since our last update with commentary from two weeks ago, the misfortunes of a couple of starting pitchers have significantly impacted the pool.

Roy Halladay's mild groin strain resulted in an abbreviated outing on June 12, and a subsequent missed start--with one more to come--as he dropped from the AL innings pitched lead. Assuming he returns as scheduled on June 28, and given his history as a work horse, eventually regaining that lead is far from out of reach, though.

Johan Santana has allowed 16 ER in 17 1/3 innings since that June 6 update, and seen his ERA balloon from 2.00 to 3.22. Surprisingly, he's actually won one game during that stretch, but has still fallen from the NL wins lead.

Ichiro Suzuki's ascension to the AL lead in batting average, though, has helped Joe Williams maintain his lead atop the pool, although with two correct categories fewer than two weeks ago.

This Day in Pool History: June 15, 2006

Thought it might be fun to revisit some old updates from past pools. Here's one from exactly three years ago.

We must be getting better at the HBP thing-- only one entrant (Joe Maissel) from the entire 29-contestant 2006 pool would have cracked our current top 20 in HBP totals on this date!

Note the presence of Curt Schilling in the AL leaders...

June 13, 2009

June 6, 2009

First of all, my apologies for the lack of commentary of late, but there just hasn't been all that much to write about. Or, that's my excuse, at least.

Now, as the season reaches the one-third mark for most teams--meaning David Ortiz is now on pace to hit three home runs instead of four (sorry Kristin)--things seem to be getting a little interesting. In just one week's time, no less than 13 pool participants have added the NL pitching trio of Santana (ERA), Lincecum (SO) and K-Rod (Saves) to their number of "in the money" picks, and our leader's total has doubled. Taking me back to the days when he annually dominated the rotisserie baseball league we ran together, Joe Williams has recaptured the top spot.

In the same time frame, last week's leader has unbelievably dropped to 18th place. I can't recall ever seeing such a drastic change in the pool's history. It's also exciting--at least to me--to see three newcomers--Rob LaColla, Dan Conti, and Tim Farrell--showing up in the top ten almost every update so far.

Stay tuned, though, because I'm pretty sure things are just starting to heat up.

P.S. Take a look to the right at Jud's cleverly labeled list of RBI (Real Bad Injuries), and the fact that 12 players whom at least one person picked for at least one category are currently on the disabled list--and that number doesn't include Manny Ramirez, who's not physically injured, although he still has five home runs more than Ortiz.

May 30, 2009

Times are tough.

May 23, 2009

May 17, 2009

May 10, 2009

It's interesting to note that all but two of our eight newcomers are either in the top five or the bottom five. I'm not naming any names.

May 2, 2009

It's looking pretty obvious who currently has bragging rights in the 454 Riverside Drive household, and it's not the boys.

April 26, 2009

Three weeks into the season, and it's time for our first proper update. Prior to today's action, it appears the difference between the leaders and the "also-rans" is a pair of Kansas City Royals. Also, it looks like the (so far) correct selections of Jacoby Ellsbury (AL steals) and Johan Santana (NL ERA) are virtually meaningless...with almost half of the pool's entrants picking both, and all but three people having at least one of them.

On the strength of hot starts by Zach Greinke and Joakim Soria, Jim Kushner leads the pack, with Jon Pauley, Mike Orobona and Amy Gill close behind. This, of course, is the only thing these Yankees fans have to be excited about this weekend.

Lastly, I want to give some recognition to the only two unique picks who are "in the money" as of this update: Amy Gill's selection of Chad Billingsley for NL wins, and Gert Quigley's pick of Carlos Pena for AL homers.

April 21, 2009

Pool Updates

For those of you who have been here before, you're used to receiving emailed standings updates every other week or so. Now that we're using the blog, the standings may be updated more frequently than that, but the commentary should remain on approximately the same schedule. At least for now, I'll continue to send emails, but these may evolve to just being links to the blog. If you get in the habit of visiting here on your own, you will most likely receive the benefit of more up-to-date information.

A nice option to keep up-to-date with the updates (so to speak) is to subscribe to the blog as an RSS feed. There's an option to do so in the right-hand column of the front page here. If you don't know what an RSS feed is, or have any questions regarding setting one up, feel free to shoot me (Dan) an email.

Another option is to sign up for receiving an email each time the blog is updated. We are allowed to set up a limited number of email notifications, so it will be on a first-come, first-served basis. Again, send me an email and I'll add you to the list.

For the first standings updates, scroll down to just below this post. Also, be sure to check out the other information in the right-hand column, including links to spreadsheets showing everyone's picks and—just as important for now—who has paid us so far, plus an injury report listing all players picked in the pool who are currently disabled.

That's all for now. Good luck to everyone!

April 17, 2009

April 15, 2009

Welcome to the MLB Predictions Pool!

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Predictions Pool. We received a record total of 33 entries in this, our 5th year running the pool, and our first as a blog. Of course, this means a $330 winner-take-all grand prize.

Last year, Jon Pauley was the pool's equivalent of the Tampa Bay Rays, except he was able to finish the deal and win it all, after finishing 28th out of 32 entrants in 2007.

We'd especially like to welcome our eight brand new participants--Ali Armstrong, Sean Carey, Dan Conti, Tim Farrell, Karen Jost, Rob LaColla, Todd Mathewson and Jason Zelesky--as well as express our appreciation to our 25 returnees.

We'll be posting frequent updates with our top ten here in the body of each post, and links to the complete standings in the columns on the right. In these right-hand columns, you'll also find some other useful information, including the 2009 Complete Pool Picks and 2009 Pool Picks Breakdown, as well as the 2008 Final Standings.

Stay tuned for other new additions to the pool, thanks for entering, and good luck to all!

-Dan & Jud