September 27, 2009

With just a little over a week to go in the season, today is a rare treat for pool participants. Both of your pool organizers are in the same place as we prepare the update, so you'll be the beneficiaries of some serious over-analysis.

We've determined that a total of nine people still have an outside chance to win this thing. That list consists of both of us, as well as Karen Jost, Rob LaColla, Tony Wight and Joe Williams. But, it also includes the three contenders with the most realistic chances of coming out on top: Jon Pauley, Aaron Smith and perennial bridesmaid John Agnello.

Obviously, as the current leader, Jon Pauley's chances are mostly dependent on things remaining as they are, but we thought we'd try to lay out what it will take for the other top two contenders to win.
With Ryan Howard's recent surge in NL RBI, all it will take for Smith to earn the top prize is for Howard to overtake Prince Fielder for the lead in that category...all else remaining equal, of course.

Agnello needs any two of the following four category changes: Mark Teixeira in AL HR, Howard in NL HR, Howard in NL RBI, and Tim Lincecum in NL ERA. Again, this would also depend on no other significant changes.

But, as you can imagine, there are way too many scenarios to outline them all at this point, because there is still a lot that could happen over the final eight days of the season.