Wednesday, September 30, 2009
September 30, 2009
If this isn't the wildest final week in pool history, it sure seems like it. As of Sunday's update, defending champion Jon Pauley was our leader. Then, during that day's action, Ryan Howard tied Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead, moving Aaron Smith into first place. Two days later, John Agnello moves in front on the strength of Mark Teixeira's 39th home run, which ties him with Carlos Pena for the AL lead.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
September 27, 2009
With just a little over a week to go in the season, today is a rare treat for pool participants. Both of your pool organizers are in the same place as we prepare the update, so you'll be the beneficiaries of some serious over-analysis.
We've determined that a total of nine people still have an outside chance to win this thing. That list consists of both of us, as well as Karen Jost, Rob LaColla, Tony Wight and Joe Williams. But, it also includes the three contenders with the most realistic chances of coming out on top: Jon Pauley, Aaron Smith and perennial bridesmaid John Agnello.
Obviously, as the current leader, Jon Pauley's chances are mostly dependent on things remaining as they are, but we thought we'd try to lay out what it will take for the other top two contenders to win.
With Ryan Howard's recent surge in NL RBI, all it will take for Smith to earn the top prize is for Howard to overtake Prince Fielder for the lead in that category...all else remaining equal, of course.
Agnello needs any two of the following four category changes: Mark Teixeira in AL HR, Howard in NL HR, Howard in NL RBI, and Tim Lincecum in NL ERA. Again, this would also depend on no other significant changes.
But, as you can imagine, there are way too many scenarios to outline them all at this point, because there is still a lot that could happen over the final eight days of the season.
We've determined that a total of nine people still have an outside chance to win this thing. That list consists of both of us, as well as Karen Jost, Rob LaColla, Tony Wight and Joe Williams. But, it also includes the three contenders with the most realistic chances of coming out on top: Jon Pauley, Aaron Smith and perennial bridesmaid John Agnello.
Obviously, as the current leader, Jon Pauley's chances are mostly dependent on things remaining as they are, but we thought we'd try to lay out what it will take for the other top two contenders to win.
With Ryan Howard's recent surge in NL RBI, all it will take for Smith to earn the top prize is for Howard to overtake Prince Fielder for the lead in that category...all else remaining equal, of course.
Agnello needs any two of the following four category changes: Mark Teixeira in AL HR, Howard in NL HR, Howard in NL RBI, and Tim Lincecum in NL ERA. Again, this would also depend on no other significant changes.
But, as you can imagine, there are way too many scenarios to outline them all at this point, because there is still a lot that could happen over the final eight days of the season.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
September 20, 2009
What a difference a day makes. As of Sunday morning, when Jud posted the standings (below) prior to the day's action, Matt Lucas stood in third place in the pool's standings. However, by the end of this afternoon's games, Matt had dropped to 24th place, as Roy Halladay passed C.C. Sabathia for the AL IP lead, Prince Fielder took over the NL RBI lead, and Tim Lincecum gave up the NL ERA lead by allowing five earned runs in four innings. As I write this, though, Albert Pujols has driven in a run in the Sunday night game to tie Fielder for the NL lead. Still, Lucas stands in 14th place, with little chance to become the pool's first two-time champion (he won in 2006).
Defending champion Jon Pauley, on the other hand, remains strong in his quest to repeat, re-claiming the lead as a result of today's developments. Aaron Smith, Tony Wight, Joe Williams and John Agnello (in that order) round out the top five. Stay tuned...
Defending champion Jon Pauley, on the other hand, remains strong in his quest to repeat, re-claiming the lead as a result of today's developments. Aaron Smith, Tony Wight, Joe Williams and John Agnello (in that order) round out the top five. Stay tuned...
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Saturday, September 12, 2009
September 12, 2009
For the last month-plus, the pool lead has been alternating between current leader Jon Pauley and Tony Wight, although Tony has recently dropped to 7th place. Since we all know that they are two of the top contenders to take the big prize as we approach the final three weeks of the season, we thought we'd take a look at the chances of a few others in the running.
John Agnello (4th place) has moved into the top five on the strength of Roy Halladay's tenuous AL IP lead. Of course, with C.C. Sabathia pitching today, he should re-claim that category, but it should continue to be a see-saw battle, with Zach Greinke and Justin Verlander also figuring into the mix. Agnello is pulling for Tim Lincecum in the NL ERA race, a change that would also benefit fellow contender Jud Ehrbar (5th place). But, the real opportuniy for John is the season-ending injury suffered by Carlos Pena. With Mark Teixeira poised to make a run at the AL home run title, Agnello and Jim Kushner (10th place) stand to gain the most from this development.
All other things remaining equal, Joe Williams (3rd place) is an Ichiro Suzuki AL batting title away from first place in the pool. Dan McCloskey (8th place) is also pulling for Suzuki. Despite the "season for the ages" that Joe Mauer is in the midst of, Ichiro trails him by only eight points in the AL batting race.
We've previously pointed out that the low HBP total of Aaron Smith (2nd place) means he needs to win outright, since there's little chance he could win a tiebreaker, but this is still a realistic possibility. He also shares five "in the money" categories with Pauley, though. So, he also is rooting for Ichiro to overtake Mauer for the batting title, but will need Williams to lose one of these two categories as well: CC Sabathia in AL wins or Brian Fuentes in AL saves.
We'll take a look at the chances of a few more contenders next week.
John Agnello (4th place) has moved into the top five on the strength of Roy Halladay's tenuous AL IP lead. Of course, with C.C. Sabathia pitching today, he should re-claim that category, but it should continue to be a see-saw battle, with Zach Greinke and Justin Verlander also figuring into the mix. Agnello is pulling for Tim Lincecum in the NL ERA race, a change that would also benefit fellow contender Jud Ehrbar (5th place). But, the real opportuniy for John is the season-ending injury suffered by Carlos Pena. With Mark Teixeira poised to make a run at the AL home run title, Agnello and Jim Kushner (10th place) stand to gain the most from this development.
All other things remaining equal, Joe Williams (3rd place) is an Ichiro Suzuki AL batting title away from first place in the pool. Dan McCloskey (8th place) is also pulling for Suzuki. Despite the "season for the ages" that Joe Mauer is in the midst of, Ichiro trails him by only eight points in the AL batting race.
We've previously pointed out that the low HBP total of Aaron Smith (2nd place) means he needs to win outright, since there's little chance he could win a tiebreaker, but this is still a realistic possibility. He also shares five "in the money" categories with Pauley, though. So, he also is rooting for Ichiro to overtake Mauer for the batting title, but will need Williams to lose one of these two categories as well: CC Sabathia in AL wins or Brian Fuentes in AL saves.
We'll take a look at the chances of a few more contenders next week.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
September 7, 2009
Over the last couple of weeks, the pool has hinged on a see-saw battle for the AL Saves lead between Mariano Rivera and Brian Fuentes. Actually, Rivera hasn't quite been able to take complete control of the lead, but each time he moves into a tie with Fuentes, Tony Wight jumps to the top spot of the pool standings. Despite missing out on his last two save opportunities due to a mild groin injury, his save in the first half of a day/night doubleheader with the Rays on Monday, moves him back into a tie for the AL lead.
Not knowing exactly where all the other categories stand due to the fact that there are games in progress as I write this, it may be a bit risky to assume that this puts Tony back on top of the pool. However, a healthy Rivera certainly bodes well for his chances.
Not knowing exactly where all the other categories stand due to the fact that there are games in progress as I write this, it may be a bit risky to assume that this puts Tony back on top of the pool. However, a healthy Rivera certainly bodes well for his chances.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
September 3, 2009
I thought it would be interesting to point out that there are four women in the top ten. I'm not sure if this is a record, but considering there are only six women--out of 33 total entrants--in the entire pool, that's pretty impressive.
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