September 12, 2009

For the last month-plus, the pool lead has been alternating between current leader Jon Pauley and Tony Wight, although Tony has recently dropped to 7th place. Since we all know that they are two of the top contenders to take the big prize as we approach the final three weeks of the season, we thought we'd take a look at the chances of a few others in the running.

John Agnello (4th place) has moved into the top five on the strength of Roy Halladay's tenuous AL IP lead. Of course, with C.C. Sabathia pitching today, he should re-claim that category, but it should continue to be a see-saw battle, with Zach Greinke and Justin Verlander also figuring into the mix. Agnello is pulling for Tim Lincecum in the NL ERA race, a change that would also benefit fellow contender Jud Ehrbar (5th place). But, the real opportuniy for John is the season-ending injury suffered by Carlos Pena. With Mark Teixeira poised to make a run at the AL home run title, Agnello and Jim Kushner (10th place) stand to gain the most from this development.

All other things remaining equal, Joe Williams (3rd place) is an Ichiro Suzuki AL batting title away from first place in the pool. Dan McCloskey (8th place) is also pulling for Suzuki. Despite the "season for the ages" that Joe Mauer is in the midst of, Ichiro trails him by only eight points in the AL batting race.

We've previously pointed out that the low HBP total of Aaron Smith (2nd place) means he needs to win outright, since there's little chance he could win a tiebreaker, but this is still a realistic possibility. He also shares five "in the money" categories with Pauley, though. So, he also is rooting for Ichiro to overtake Mauer for the batting title, but will need Williams to lose one of these two categories as well: CC Sabathia in AL wins or Brian Fuentes in AL saves.

We'll take a look at the chances of a few more contenders next week.